Samuel Huntington (1993): (Global) conflict will not be ideological or primarily economic but cultural. The most important conflicts of the future will occur along the cultural fault lines separating civilizations from one another. Civilizations: Western, Confucian, Japanese, Islamic, Hindu, Slavic-Orthodox, Latin American and possibly African. Civilizations are differentiated by history, language, culture, tradition, and most important religion. Civilizational differences The product of centuries. Deeply embedded. The interactions among peoples of different civilizations: Enhance the “civilization-consciousness” of people. This consciousness invigorates differences and animosities stretching back deep into history. The nature of differences between civilizations: They are far more fundamental than differences among political ideologies and political regimes. They are less mutable. Civilizational differences over: ◼ Cultural issues (non-verbal communication, attire). ◼ Ethical issues (primacy of freedom or primacy of social order); ◼ Policy issues (environment, human rights; economic development). Globalization and identity crisis: The processes of economic modernization and social change throughout the world ◼ weaken the nation state as a source of identity; ◼ separate people from longstanding local identities (familial, tribal, ethnic). The revival of religion provides a basis for identity and commitment that transcends national boundaries and unites civilizations. Civilization identity and political mobilization: Governments and groups are decreasingly able to mobilize support on the basis of ideology. They will attempt to mobilize support by appealing to identities (especially to common religion and civilization identity). In much of the world religion has moved in to fill this gap Often in the form of movements that are labeled “fundamentalist.” (Such movements are found in: ◼ Western Christianity, ◼ Judaism, ◼ Buddhism and Hinduism, ◼ as well as in Islam. Civilizational differences and conflict Differences among civilizations: Do not necessarily mean conflict, and conflict does not necessarily mean violence. But over the the centuries differences among civilizations have generated the most prolonged and the most violent conflicts. The principle (global) fault line: The peoples to the north and west (i.e., Europe and North America); The peoples to the east and south (i.e., Russia and West Asia and North Africa). The peoples to the north and west of this line are Protestant or Catholic (Western Christianity) they share the common experiences of European history: ◼ feudalism, ◼ the Renaissance, ◼ the Reformation, ◼ the Enlightenment, ◼ the French Revolution, ◼ the Industrial Revolution. Catholics and protestants generally economically better off than the peoples to the east; and Europeans: hey building a common economy and to the consolidation of democratic political systems. The peoples to the east and south of this line are Orthodox (Christian) or Muslim they historically belonged to the Ottoman or Tsarist empires and were only lightly touched by the shaping events in the rest of Europe. They are generally less advanced economically; they seem much less likely to develop stable democratic political systems. Conflict between Western and Islamic civilizations has been going on for 1,300 years. After the founding of Islam, the Arab and Moorish surge west and north only ended at Tours in 732. From the eleventh to the thirteenth century the Crusaders attempted with temporary success to bring Christianity and Christian rule to the Holy Land. From the fourteenth to the seventeenth century The Ottoman Turks Expanded at the expense of the West Conquered the Middle East and the Balkans, captured Constantinople, and twice laid siege to Vienna. Ottoman expansions In the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries as Ottoman power declined Expansion of the West (colonialism): Britain, France, and Italy established Western control over most of North Africa and the Middle East. After World War II, the West, began to retreat (was pushed out) The colonial empires were pushed out; Arab nationalism and nationalization followed. This was not a smooth process France fought a bloody and ruthless war in Algeria for most of the 1950s; U.S. and Britain intervened in Iran in 1953; British and French forces invaded Egypt in 1956; American forces went into Lebanon in 1958; British paratroopers in Jordan in 1958. Several wars occurred between Arabs and Israel (created with the help from the West) 1948; 1956 (the British and the French cooperate with Israel); 1963; 1973 (the U.S. overtly sided with Israel). The West became heavily dependent on the Persian Gulf: ◼ ◼ ◼ ◼ Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iran. Arab and non-Arab terrorists supported by at least three Middle Eastern governments (Iraq, Libya, Iran) ◼ bombed Western planes and installations and seized Western hostages. Then came the 1990s and 2000s The first and the second Persian Gulf wars (1991 and 2003); The emergence of al Qaeda and other transnational jihadist networks. Terrorist acts against Western targets (including the 9/11 attacks). Further deterioration continued The emergence of the Islamic state (ISIL, ISIS) and the terrorist in France, Belgium, Germany, the U.S.; Persecution of Christian minorities in the Middle East and North Africa. And… On both sides the interaction between Islam and the West is seen as a clash of civilizations. This centuries-old military interaction between the West and Islam is unlikely to decline Those relations are also complicated by demography. Population growth and conflicts in Arab countries, particularly in North Africa, has led to increased migration to Western Europe. Europe, North America, Australia Increasingly open racism, political reactions and violence against Muslims have become more intense and more widespread since 1990.